Illinois is experiencing more tornadoes — but receiving less federal disaster aid

Illinois has seen a record number of tornadoes just six months into the year after a series of spring and summer storms barreled their way across the Midwest, causing millions in damage as federal disaster assistance wanes in Democrat-led states.

Experts chalk the sudden increase up to temporary fluctuation, although a small increase over decades is in line with current climate change research. But more severe weather events could strain local and state governments as recent analysis shows blue states have struggled to get federal aid requests approved under the second Trump administration.

The National Weather Service confirmed a record 153 tornadoes in Illinois as of June 23, a number all but guaranteed to increase as teams continue to evaluate late June storms while more tornadoes are bound to occur in the second half of the year. Before 2023, Illinois hadn’t recorded more than 73 tornadoes in a calendar year since 2006.

When looking at recorded tornadoes since 1950, there is going to be an increase mainly because of better equipment and reporting methods, state climatologist Trent Ford said. But even when scientists adjust for reporting, there is still an increase evident, particularly in the Midwest.

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Climate change or simple fluctuation?

What’s difficult is figuring out why that is happening, because it’s not just one factor contributing to the increase. Stories attributing an eastward shift in “Tornado Alley” entirely to climate change don’t always acknowledge the fact that the Midwest has aways been a hotspot for tornadoes in addition to the Great Plains region, Ford said.

There are some signals for climate change, such as an increase in early spring tornadoes and outbreaks of multiple tornadoes in one severe storm.

But generally, the past four years are not what climatologists would expect as a symptom of climate change.

“The question of, would we expect what’s happened over the last four years to occur (the) next four or five years, might be ‘no’ because of how unusual the last four years have been,” Ford said. “There’s not likely a very strong climate change signal in getting this number of tornadoes.”

Although the high frequency over the last four years could partially be due to climate change, Ford said it’s more attributable to normal weather variability because climate change trends take place over much longer periods of time: decades or more, not a handful of years.

“We do see an increasing trend in tornadoes that is possibly attributed to climate change within the Midwest, but it’s a very small increase. It’s not a doubling of the frequency; that’s not how climate change works,” Ford said.

Tornado damage

This year, several tornadoes have caused severe damage to communities across the state, including five EF-3s verified by the National Weather Service. Those are tornadoes with winds between 136 mph and 165mph. Tornados with the most severe rating, EF-5, are extremely rare.

On March 10, an EF-3 ripped through Kankakee County and across the state line into Indiana, killing three people, destroying dozens of structures and significantly damaging hundreds more.

Another EF-3 moved at similar speeds through Effingham and Jasper counties the evening of June 17, injuring two and destroying and damaging dozens of structures in the area. That same evening, an EF-2 damaged parts of Coles County, just north of Effingham.

In southern Illinois’ rural Jefferson County, an EF-3 killed two on June 22. EF-3 tornadoes have also been confirmed in Washburn and Streator. Dozens of EF-1s have also caused damage all over the state, from metropolitan areas to rural farmland.

The effect tornadoes have on metro vs. rural areas is largely the same, but available infrastructure like accessible shelters and broadband can have a more targeted effect in rural areas, Ford said.

Decrease in federal aid

At the same time, a decrease in federal disaster assistance is putting more pressure on local and state governments as communities rebuild following these severe weather events.

“Historically, (the Federal Emergency Management Agency) and the federal government have come in after a disaster and provided essentially the resources, where coordination is the local, the state, making sure everybody gets what they need,” Ford said. “That system is really important for communities be able to get back on their feet, for people to be able to rebuild, so it’s extremely important that all forms, local, state, federal government are working together and in good faith.”

A Politico analysis found Democrat-led states saw just 23% of their disaster requests granted in the first year of Trump’s second term, compared to 89% for their Republican counterparts. Under the past six administrations — including Trump’s first term — states led by either party saw similar rates of approval, between 70% and 90%. The analysis also found that the administration takes twice as long to issue decisions on requests from blue states.

Last fall, the Trump administration denied two requests for assistance after July and August storms caused severe flooding in the Chicago area. Gov. JB Pritzker criticized the decisions as “politically motivated,” although FEMA has denied that in media statements. The U.S. Small Business Administration did approve low-interest loans for businesses impacted by the August flooding.

“They (FEMA) are slow in responding with the dollars that they promise, and you know there are only so many dollars that a state has for what should be covered by federal emergency management,” Pritzker told reporters in Decatur on Monday.

Pritzker visited Kankakee County within two days of the March 10 storm. He surveyed damage from the June 17 EF-2 in Charleston on June 22 and said he is communicating with officials from Effingham and Jefferson counties.

State and federal agencies completed damage assessments in Kankakee on March 30, and despite initial indications, did not seek individual or public assistance through FEMA. The SBA did approve low-interest emergency loans for small businesses with uninsured damage. Pritzker said he expects the state will seek federal assistance for the June tornadoes, either through FEMA or the SBA.

“We’ve got to make sure that we’re literally clearing the streets, restoring power, all the things that need to be done immediately,” Pritzker said. “Then we start to do an assessment with the local emergency management teams.”

To submit a request for public assistance to FEMA, the county and the state must first issue an emergency declaration, followed by a presidential declaration, Pritzker said. FEMA can issue both public assistance and individual assistance grants after a disaster declaration. The state or county must also reach a cost per person threshold to qualify for the funds, although this doesn’t guarantee a request for aid will be granted. FEMA considers cost, insurance coverage, community impact and other available resources in its evaluations for individual and public assistance.

Capitol News Illinois is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news service that distributes state government coverage to hundreds of news outlets statewide. It is funded primarily by the Illinois Press Foundation and the Robert R. McCormick Foundation.