Illinois Republicans assess damage from nationwide ‘blue tsunami’

Last week’s midterm election couldn’t have gone much worse for Illinois Republicans.

The cards were already stacked against them despite the GOP being the incumbent party in power in Washington, and losing all the statewide races was expected. They were massively outspent in Illinois and few statewide candidates beyond gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey were well-known in the state.

But the results from the ‘blue tsunami’ were worse than many imagined.

In the governor’s race, Gov. JB Pritzker set a modern-day record for a Democratic candidate with about 60% of the vote. And in legislative races for the Statehouse, Republicans lost more seats than expected, including some no one was watching.

“Voters really were sending us a message about the way we govern,” Illinois Republican Party Chair Bob Grogan told Capitol News Illinois in an interview. “We weren’t getting things done fast enough. I think that they punished us for being distracted by some issues that maybe didn’t deserve our attention and then they obviously aren’t happy with what’s going on at the pump and the checkout line at the grocery store.”

President Donald Trump rode frustration over inflation to a second term in the White House in 2024, promising to lower costs. But high prices remained an issue after he implemented sweeping tariffs, and gas prices skyrocketed after the war in Iran started, though Trump as a candidate had promised not to start any new wars.

“There was a little bit of a lack of enthusiasm (in the suburbs) and Democrats just capitalized on it,” Rep. Adam Niemerg, R-Dieterich, said.

In the Chicago area, where Bailey’s campaign wanted to improve after a poor showing in 2022 that led to a 12.5-point loss, Pritzker improved his margins in each county. Statewide, Pritzker appears to be on track to win by about 24 points — double his 2022 performance.

So far, Bailey has received the second-fewest number of votes among the statewide Republican candidates despite having the most name recognition. Despite this, Bailey’s running mate Aaron Del Mar thinks their campaign exceeded expectations.

“With the resources that we had, we didn’t stop,” Del Mar said. “We were on the road, we were working, we did everything we could. I think we engaged with a voter base that has been forgotten for a long time.”

Del Mar said Pritzker’s $90.5 million in self-funding discouraged potential donors from giving to Bailey. While the campaign lobbied the Republican National Committee and other national GOP donors to give them a boost, they were forced to defend incumbents in other states, including many who also lost their races.

“I knew it wasn’t always going to be good on a national level, but the national headwinds were a lot stronger than I thought,” Del Mar said. “You could see that by some of the races that weren’t even on the radar.”

Republicans have lost six seats in the Illinois House so far, with Sycamore Republican Rep. Jeff Keicher’s race too close to call. They’ve also lost five seats in the Senate and Cherry Valley Republican Sen. Dave Syverson’s race is also undecided. As it stands now, Democrats will hold supermajorities of 84-34 in the House and 45-14 in the Senate — both records.

What’s the new message

Republicans acknowledged voter frustration with Trump over gas prices, inflation and the war in Iran during Tuesday’s election. But none were jumping to move on from the Republican president.

“I’d like to say that we’re much more united on the federal level under President Donald Trump than the Democrats ever will be because they’ve elected people that are, quite frankly, crazy,” Niemerg said.

Grogan said the results don’t mean Illinois Republicans have to change their arguments.

“The presidency doesn’t tell you what needs to happen on the DuPage County Board,” Grogan said. “I think that the electorate, they spoke overwhelmingly about their sense of well-being globally, but we have to talk about local issues.”

He said Illinois Republicans still hold the upper hand on state and local issues, including affordability. Grogan pointed to the results of a Lake County referendum that asked voters to increase the sales tax by 1% to fund education. It was soundly defeated with 56.8% of voters opposing it.

“That’s not a rejection of our policies, that was a rejection of our politicians,” Grogan said. “I think that Tip O’Neill line that ‘All politics is local’ has really faded in truth with the advent of the 24-hour news cycle and social media.”

The Democratic Party of Illinois had a different assessment.

“The GOP are planless, disorganized, and out of touch,” the party said in a statement. “For two years, the ILGOP has remained silent about D.C. Republicans making life infinitely harder for everyday Illinoisans. They sat by and thought making Democrats the bogeyman was enough to persuade voters.”

Blame game

Though Republicans generally agree unpopular actions by Trump motivated many voters to support Democrats, there’s still plenty of finger-pointing going around Illinois.

“There was a lot of selfishness on other people here in Illinois that have political aspirations for the future and wanted to see a loss to feather their own bed for a future opportunity,” Del Mar said.

He declined to give names, but some Republicans have been upset with Ted Dabrowski, who finished second in the primary for governor but never publicly backed the winner, Bailey. And in September, Dabrowski launched his own “Fight for Illinois” nonprofit to advocate for conservative policy positions.

Del Mar also said independent gubernatorial candidate Collin Corbett, a former Republican political strategist who won more than 3% of the vote, distracted voters.

Some are blaming the General Assembly’s Republican leaders for the historic losses, especially in the House where the Illinois Freedom Caucus — the chamber’s most conservative members — want to oust House Minority Leader Tony McCombie. They’ve previously challenged her leadership and are among a group of 13 members who signed a letter asking her to delay leadership votes, though that’s not enough to force her out.

“If Tony McCombie is the leader of the Illinois Republicans in January, we’re going to have a very splintered caucus,” said Niemerg, a member of the Freedom Caucus.

A spokesperson for McCombie said in a statement she “is eager to hear and share ideas as we look forward.” On the Senate side, Republican Leader John Curran, R-Downers Grove, is expected to remain the Senate Republican leader.

Grogan said the state party won’t be involved in those votes.

What’s next

Grogan is also facing some heat. Del Mar said Monday he will push for an Illinois Republican convention in March to gather party members to revamp the party’s operations and vision.

“I think that we have to have strong conversations on what our leadership is and what the requirements of that leadership are,” Del Mar said. “And I think it’s not just about messaging.”

He wants the party to adopt new bylaws, a platform and leadership structure. He also suggested that Republican primary voters elect members to the party’s State Central Committee, which is what Democrats already do.

Del Mar said the party must also adopt a permanent candidate recruitment program, improve regional field operations and establish a fundraising program to better raise money.

Del Mar said he’s not interested in becoming party chair, however.

Grogan defended the party’s operation this year in the face of Pritzker’s nearly $90.5 million in spending on his own race. He believes coordination with Republican candidates was strong but acknowledged the party must improve how it recruits candidates.

“The party has to thread a needle,” Grogan said. “We have to make sure that viable, competitive folks do put their name forward.”

Grogan said, for example, the party can’t leave statewide offices uncontested. Last year, no Republican candidate filed to run for Illinois treasurer in the March primary. Attorney Max Solomon won the party’s ballot line after waging a write-in campaign. Grogan called the situation “suboptimal.”

“We need to make sure that we have good folks that run, but we also can’t be heavy-handed” and promote a single candidate,” Grogan said.

Niemerg said he doesn’t think the party should moderate its message, but he understands why some suburban lawmakers can’t be as conservative as he is.

“All I’m really asking is for Republicans that are in ruby red districts to be Republicans, to stick to the Republican platform and I would like to see suburban Republicans do it as well,” Niemerg said. “Let’s talk about the issues that make us great as Republicans and draw that difference because if we keep going to the left, this is why the suburbs have been lost.”

The Republicans who lost their seats were more moderate members of the caucus.

“There are some really good members on the Republican side that were common sense-oriented for compromise and bipartisan collaboration and they were punished by voters reacting to their dissatisfaction with the federal government,” Rep. Ryan Spain, R-Peoria, said during a virtual Lincoln Forum event on Monday.

Capitol News Illinois is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news service that distributes state government coverage to hundreds of news outlets statewide. It is funded primarily by the Illinois Press Foundation and the Robert R. McCormick Foundation.