Illinois lawmakers’ 2026 theme: affordability

A flock of birds flies past the dome of the Illinois Capitol in Springfield on Oct. 30, 2025. (Capitol News Illinois photo by Jerry Nowicki)

SPRINGFIELD — House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch says this spring’s election-year legislative session will be squarely focused on tackling Illinois voters’ priorities.

“We’re going to focus on things that help folks in their household budget,” Welch told Capitol News Illinois. “We’re going to focus on things that help create good jobs, wage growth and opportunity. We’re going to help our small businesses continue to grow and succeed.”

“Affordability” will be the word of the year, and Welch said members of his House Democratic caucus will be making decisions about their priorities through that lens.

A recent poll by Emerson College and WGN News showed the economy was by far the top concern for Illinoisan, with 40% of the 1,000 likely primary voters surveyed naming it their top priority.

“I certainly hope it doesn’t mean another push for a progressive income tax or a tax on retirement,” House Republican Leader Tony McCombie, R-Savanna, told Capitol News Illinois.

Welch said he would like to see a graduated income tax enacted in Illinois, although he didn’t commit to making a constitutional amendment a legislative priority.

“Our job as a state is to help people and to address a lot of the systemic issues that we have here in Illinois,” Welch said. “We need revenue to address it.”

Raising revenue

Last year, 61% of Illinois voters signaled support for a tax on millionaires that would fund unspecified property tax relief when asked in an advisory referendum. Illinois has a flat tax enshrined in the state constitution, which means voters would have to approve an amendment to make it happen.

Welch said several members of his caucus are pushing for it, but the plan likely doesn’t have the votes quite yet. Gov. JB Pritzker has also said it won’t be a priority for him this spring, though members of the General Assembly are welcome to lead the charge.

Read more: Despite mounting budget pressure, graduated income tax remains political longshot

McCombie argued such a tax won’t address the affordability problem.

“When the Democrats say that their initiatives are for affordability of Illinois, that scares me because affordability means more revenue, which means more taxes,” McCombie said.

She speculated Democrats might wait to address any perceived revenue problems during the “lame duck” session in January 2027, after the election is over and before new lawmakers are sworn in, to avoid angering voters in November.

Lawmakers have faced tighter budgets in the last two years and resorted to targeted tax increases to boost revenue and continue growing spending. The challenge for lawmakers this spring will be closing a potentially multi-billion dollar deficit for fiscal year 2027 that begins on July 1.

The governor’s budget office in October projected the deficit would be $2.2 billion for FY27, although state revenues have outperformed expectations since then. Recent revenues numbers through December show that revenue is up 5% in the first six months of FY26 compared to FY25. But remains high over what federal funding Illinois will receive.

It’s not unusual for lawmakers to face such a projected deficit when budgeting for a new year, as the governor’s office’s report is based on current spending and taxing policies. But since it was published, lawmakers in the fall approved a bill that decouples state and federal tax code in certain areas, muting some revenue-negative effects of recent federal legislation.

Responding to the feds

Over the last year, the Trump administration has cut off certain funding streams to Illinois and threatened many others.

In the last two weeks alone, the administration threatened to eliminate mental health funding, other types of health care funding over the state’s policies on gender identity, and overall federal funding to Illinois because of its sanctuary policies.

“With all of the funding cuts that the administration has taken away from us, it has been probably the most challenging year of my governorship because we can’t replace the federal funding,” Pritzker told reporters in Pontiac on Wednesday. “It’s too large, and I think the federal government doesn’t understand the damage that they’re doing.”

Though the cuts are often struck down by the courts, they have kept the state’s budget in constant limbo. McCombie spun the blame for the cuts onto Pritzker’s anti-Trump rhetoric.

“I don’t know if it’s retribution, but it’s certainly rhetoric, and certainly we’re being targeted,” McCombie said. “I wish the governor of Illinois was like other governors in other states that were Democrat leaning and worked with the president.”

States will also have to take on more spending following Congress’ passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act last summer.

The state’s cost to provide food assistance could rise by $700 million, while cuts to health care programs could push added costs to the state into the billions.

Most of those changes won’t be felt until FY28 and Welch said that means lawmakers have some time to evaluate them.

“We’re going to address the things that we have right in front of us, things that we can control now,” he said. “We’ll continue to try to plan as best we had can. But I do think it is an advantage that you can tackle these things year to year.”

Insurance regulation

Welch said part of this spring’s agenda will be picking up unresolved initiatives from the fall, which includes insurance reform. The issue has become a top concern for Pritzker, Welch and Senate President Don Harmon, D-Oak Park, since State Farm increased homeowners insurance rates in Illinois by 27% last summer.

Read more: State leaders seek more transparency from insurance companies

The leaders have said they want to pass legislation that would give the Illinois Department of Insurance more power to regulate insurance rates, hoping it leads to lower costs.

“We ought to have more transparency from our insurance companies, especially when they’re coming to ask for such an enormous increase and hike in insurance premiums from their customers,” Pritzker told reporters in Normal last week.

Data centers

Lawmakers could also consider further energy policy changes despite passing a major bill in the fall that they hope will eventually lower utility costs. Issues with supply and costs persist, particularly as power-hungry data centers continue to spring up around the state.

Read more: As state regulators warn of impending energy shortfalls, capacity prices rise again

“We’re hoping that we can get something done on it,” Welch said. “It’s a pretty complicated issue … We got to address a whole wide range of concerns.”

Data centers have been the beneficiaries of tax incentives from the state and McCombie suggested the state should tighten requirements to receive them. The data center tax breaks passed with bipartisan support in Pritzker’s first term. According to the state’s 2024 report, 27 data centers had received incentives totaling an estimated $983 million in tax breaks and benefits.

“If an investor comes to a community, or investor comes to the state of Illinois, what is your plan for energy?” McCombie said. “You’re going to have to have a plan for energy. I think that’s an important piece that’s been missing.”

Where the Bears rank

With lawmakers focused on cost of living and other issues, the Chicago Bears’ request for $800 million in infrastructure funding and property tax breaks for their stadium project in Arlington Heights is low on the General Assembly’s list of priorities.

“If, for some reason, circumstances were to change, and all of a sudden members are hearing that the Bears should be a top priority, it would be my job to listen to that,” Welch said.

Read more: Illinois House speaker calls Bears stadium ask ‘insensitive’ amid budget pressures

Illinois might have a competitor for its “pride and joy.” Indiana Gov. Mike Braun said during his State of the State address on Wednesday that he is “working hard” to bring the team to Northwest Indiana. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell also joined team executives for tours of stadium sites in Arlington Heights and Hammond, Indiana, the Chicago Tribune reported.

“I think they’re just using it as leverage,” Welch said. “You know, I think they know that Indiana is a state that doesn’t support working families. They don’t believe in labor rights. It’s a very different state than the state of Illinois, and I think Chicago is very much a part of their identity.”

McCombie said many members of her caucus hope the Bears can reach a deal on a public-private partnership to stay in Illinois and move to Arlington Heights. She’s also taking the Bears’ threat to move to Indiana seriously.

“How embarrassing would it be if the Chicago Bears went to Indiana or any surrounding state?” McCombie said.

Capitol News Illinois is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news service that distributes state government coverage to hundreds of news outlets statewide. It is funded primarily by the Illinois Press Foundation and the Robert R. McCormick Foundation.